My prediction right now is that Vance or Newsom, both woke non-believers, win in 2028, which will extend non-woke governance for an additional 4 to 8 years. The 2036 or perhaps the 2032 election will be where the magic starts to happen; Millenials and zoomers will make up the majority of the electorate, and their more woke views will now have to be accomodated for by the left. The X factor here is the extent to which their views in 2024 will carry on to the 30s.
P Trump in the swing states, yet Trump started saying thst the election was rigged before the election even happened & extremely incompetently encouraged his supporters to overthrow the government because he wanted to remain in power despite losing the swing state voters.
Many MANY voters view California as a failure & don't want to become California, policy-wise.
Newsom would struggle with purple states where voters would rather anything than be like the failure that is California in their minds.
The GOP may force enough states to form over 270 electoral college votes to implement state electoral colleges that would HEAVILY favor rural areas within states & be infinitely gerrymandered to favor Republicans, meaning Democrats would have to win a 60/40 vote margin in every swing state to win.
I doubt Newsom could pull this off.
Trump can easily say that his first term didn't count because the deep state was obstructing him so this is his first real term, & thus run against in 2028. 100% chance he wins the primary if he does even at age 82 (older than Biden now), the Trump Cult of Personality is too powerful within the party.
I say Trump gets re-elected in 2028 unless he dies before then.
He will literally keep getting re-elected until he dies. He will get re-elected in 2032 too if he is alive & even slightly more mentally competent than Joe Biden is now (even if not much more by that point).
God-Emporer-For-Life is my prediction.
Project 2025, it may be the case that the 2024 election has serious consequences. Basically guaranteeing that the election is stolen in favor of Republicans until...2036? 2040? 2044? Who knows how long.
Hey Walt, good article. I think I'm going to take a break from hiatus to write a few more articles in a more 'respectable' style.
That said I strongly disagree with your endorsement of Vivek. I don't trust him. He is bombastic and conspiratard enough to get the base, but he represents the worst evolution of MAGA, because outside the exterior there's just nothing there. He's terrible on cultural issues, literally just the left 10 years ago. Surrender on cultural issues always comes in based-sounding rhetoric. It's almost always the 'libertarians' who are the most guilty, as unlike the Neocon RINOs, they can speak to the base in order to get them to sell out.
Have you moved culturally leftwards since we last spoke? I dunno, this just feels slightly different from when I last read you, though I'm glad you're going back to talking about politics.
Not going to give my 'opinions' so much as I feel less certain in things, but I feel some analysis would be good. Not sure why I've chosen now, when deadlines are getting closer, to get back writing, but I think I just want to prove I can still do it.
I like Vivek primarily because he's been a successful businessman, and I think we could use more of that in national level leadership positions. But I haven't really paid much attention to him beyond that, though, so it could well be that if I went looking, I'd end up agreeing with you. Dunno. *shrug*
All your predictions, some contradictory, will come to nought if this culture continues to give special treatment to individuals based on their race and sex. No one is even talking about quotas vs. freedom of association. Nobody. It's all just one big circle jerk. LOL.
Also, the problem of economics will not go away. When you have an increasingly connected world that pays people 10-15 times less than the west and they all can see this there will be mass migration. Companies in the real world need to compete. They need to supply a service or make a prdiuct that is within the price range of their competitors. If there is such a huge difference in cost of labor they must hire the cheaper labor in order to stay in business. Tarrifs can aleviate some of the problem but taxpayers will have to subisdize western industries and prices will go up.
Further, we can see that whites are being corralled into smaller and smaller enclaves. That's why the same home in Upper Caucasia, NW quadrant, Washington, DC is twice as expensive as one in vibrant SE quadrant. This in raving multicultural DC.
Lol theocrats. America doesn’t have “theocrats”, you’re sounding like my Toronto cousin who thinks he’s “alt-right” but really is center left. Identity politics going away? What are you smoking?
Desantis is totally an aspie. He didn’t realize that you go after illegals directly to keep their wages low through the threat of deportation while always failing to actually curb illegal work because they can just disappear and return later. Instead he implemented the strategy that actually works but isn’t what anyone really wants: going after the employers. I respect him for it but I would, wouldn’t I?
Also fuck your e/acc I don’t wanna die because verbals don’t have the shape rotator capacity to imagine something smarter than them that they can’t manipulate with rhetoric.
How would you recommend overcoming the intransigent white anti-white coalition. Be like the Jews politically would work if whites conceived of themselves in ethnic terms like Jews do but most normie whites don’t and many whites are actively hostile to this characterisation. What can we do to change these foundational factors - maybe radicalise the youth but this is more long-term than 2028 would allow for.
This might be off topic but thank God we purged the Republican party of neo conservatives there's nothing conservative about them at all just go in the Lincoln project website and have a good laugh there literally supporting transgenderism and being pro-choice
I have one disagreement with you for the Democratic party he actually be worth voting for they would have to implement this Men aren't women.
2. here. Illegal immigrants shouldn't be
3. Not everyone is obsessed with abortion.
4. Being gay isn't normal, even if it's not necessarily wrong-kids shouldn't be exposed to drag queen shows and gay porn in school libraries. 5 homeless people should not be on the street attacking people and shooting up in public 6 not everyone is obsessed with identity politics much as unemployed liberal white women 7 get back to basics working class stuff 8 stop forever wars that never end 9 ditch the far left radical socialists and and race hustlers in grifters 10 stop giving hormones to underage children 11 and don't let biological men compete against women 12 embrace designer babies and genetic engineering 13 stop anti-white bigotry 14 limit high scale and low scale immigration to 100,000 a year something manageable
You know sea steading would be a good idea making societies on the sea or making societies and Mars in the next 30 or 100 years when space shuttle and making societies on the sea becomes more affordable and more viable I think that's a good position to move forward
Trump got the GOP to move to the left on entitlements. There is no repeal ACA, no reform of SS/Medicare. Romney and those types burned up massive political capital on that retarded shit that was never going to happen. Whatever the policy merits, it’s no surprise that “I’m going to take away $1,500 a month in ACA subsidies” didn’t actually go over well with Hispanic hvac repairmen.
Yeah it will all come crashing down in a few more election cycles but you can’t do long term policy planning when the median voter is Hispanic. Gotta work with what you got.
"That’s been an effective strategy for blackpepo only because they’re geographically concentrated in swing states and are *just* big enough to have an impact but not too big for political consolidation to make sense."
I'm not sure that is true. South Carolina has a high percentage of black people and is hardly a swing state, because pretty much every white person in SC votes Team R these days. Rather, swing states are swing states because they have a large enough minority population that turnout or the lack of turnout is enough to move the state from the Team R to the Team D column.
SC isn't the only example. Mississippi and Louisiana also have plenty of black people., to give two examples,m but both are solidly Team D. Not to mention DC, or MD for Team D, and they are hardly "swing" constituencies.
As noted, *turnout* is key more than black population. Wisconsin, to give the first example to jump to mind, is around 6.5% black, and still considered a "swing state".
"Trump is simply an innocuous normie grandma candidate now. He isn’t cool anymore, and supporting him doesn’t feel half as devilish / transgressive as it did eight years ago."
Supporting someome because they are "transgressive" is just another way of letting other people run your life. For this reason, I try to avoid ideology altogether, as it short-circuits critical thinking.
"But the biggest problem I have with the Right is honestly just its retard peasant culture: the Luddism; the obscurantism; the grotesque impulse against wealth creation and sophisticated art and oblique rhetorical tactics and novel ideas; the blockheaded chud mindset that calls everyone who doesn’t talk in a monotone a faggot theater kid; the asinine worship of Russia; the repulsive lack of agency and any drive to better oneself; and above all the tendency to back straightforwardly retarded insurrection schemes that have zero chance of successfully seizing power.
Am I an elitist? Certainly. But I’m also not a snob, and feel like anyone can rise into the elite provided they have the right IQ and sufficient agency.
Moreover my standards aren’t even particularly high—I don’t really give a shit about your manners or your taste. I simply want our guys to take ownership over their life outcomes and stop doing obviously stupid shit."
Which one is it? Interesting that you gripe with the right seems to be primarily a matter of social class and consumption patterns.
I really don’t see ‘asinine love of Russia’ in the GOP but lots of goofy Russophobia along with rehashed Cold War fantasies about ‘Putin invading Europe’ in order to justify continually funding the deep state and ever higher defense budgets.
Secondly, things aren’t getting better economically on the whole except for a very small class of urban professionals and IT people. The fastest growing segment of the economy is the low-wage, dead-end service sector. In addition, domestic infrastructure is drastically deteriorating not improving. I’m not sure Trump will do much to improve the situation. Trump is more talk than action. While he is on a far stronger position then in 2016 his tendency is to make deals than stick to principle.
Personal feelings about Vivek notwithstanding, I wholeheartedly agree with bringing more Indians into leadership / under the tent. Between Vivek, Kamala, Ushar, Nikki, they are clearly raising their collective profile in any event. While their aggregate numbers may be small, they punch above their weight in terms of impact given generally higher incomes and vast over-representation in leadership roles in Silicon Valley. Like their East Asian cousins, with high IQ and enviable impulse control (at least in the US!), they should align with republican ideals - once they acknowledge that voting based solely on density of pigmentation is not in their best long-term interest. (They are already coded as white adjacent and this will only get worse. Ironic that a culture primarily known for the longest running system of truly institutionalized racism, the castes, have been aggressive supporters of Wokeism in this country). And they are equally pragmatic and ruthless enough to pull the ladder up behind them.
My prediction right now is that Vance or Newsom, both woke non-believers, win in 2028, which will extend non-woke governance for an additional 4 to 8 years. The 2036 or perhaps the 2032 election will be where the magic starts to happen; Millenials and zoomers will make up the majority of the electorate, and their more woke views will now have to be accomodated for by the left. The X factor here is the extent to which their views in 2024 will carry on to the 30s.
Newsom wins in 2028 unless there is a big scandal related to him, which is not that unlikely given his past behaviour.
P Trump in the swing states, yet Trump started saying thst the election was rigged before the election even happened & extremely incompetently encouraged his supporters to overthrow the government because he wanted to remain in power despite losing the swing state voters.
Many MANY voters view California as a failure & don't want to become California, policy-wise.
Newsom would struggle with purple states where voters would rather anything than be like the failure that is California in their minds.
The GOP may force enough states to form over 270 electoral college votes to implement state electoral colleges that would HEAVILY favor rural areas within states & be infinitely gerrymandered to favor Republicans, meaning Democrats would have to win a 60/40 vote margin in every swing state to win.
I doubt Newsom could pull this off.
Trump can easily say that his first term didn't count because the deep state was obstructing him so this is his first real term, & thus run against in 2028. 100% chance he wins the primary if he does even at age 82 (older than Biden now), the Trump Cult of Personality is too powerful within the party.
I say Trump gets re-elected in 2028 unless he dies before then.
He will literally keep getting re-elected until he dies. He will get re-elected in 2032 too if he is alive & even slightly more mentally competent than Joe Biden is now (even if not much more by that point).
God-Emporer-For-Life is my prediction.
Project 2025, it may be the case that the 2024 election has serious consequences. Basically guaranteeing that the election is stolen in favor of Republicans until...2036? 2040? 2044? Who knows how long.
No way. He’s barely popular in California let alone rest of the nation.
Hey Walt, good article. I think I'm going to take a break from hiatus to write a few more articles in a more 'respectable' style.
That said I strongly disagree with your endorsement of Vivek. I don't trust him. He is bombastic and conspiratard enough to get the base, but he represents the worst evolution of MAGA, because outside the exterior there's just nothing there. He's terrible on cultural issues, literally just the left 10 years ago. Surrender on cultural issues always comes in based-sounding rhetoric. It's almost always the 'libertarians' who are the most guilty, as unlike the Neocon RINOs, they can speak to the base in order to get them to sell out.
Have you moved culturally leftwards since we last spoke? I dunno, this just feels slightly different from when I last read you, though I'm glad you're going back to talking about politics.
Not going to give my 'opinions' so much as I feel less certain in things, but I feel some analysis would be good. Not sure why I've chosen now, when deadlines are getting closer, to get back writing, but I think I just want to prove I can still do it.
I like Vivek primarily because he's been a successful businessman, and I think we could use more of that in national level leadership positions. But I haven't really paid much attention to him beyond that, though, so it could well be that if I went looking, I'd end up agreeing with you. Dunno. *shrug*
Are you still on X?
Yes, 'Aidan Todd'.
I wish you nothing but a millstone or a firing squad.
What did I ever do to you?
All your predictions, some contradictory, will come to nought if this culture continues to give special treatment to individuals based on their race and sex. No one is even talking about quotas vs. freedom of association. Nobody. It's all just one big circle jerk. LOL.
Also, the problem of economics will not go away. When you have an increasingly connected world that pays people 10-15 times less than the west and they all can see this there will be mass migration. Companies in the real world need to compete. They need to supply a service or make a prdiuct that is within the price range of their competitors. If there is such a huge difference in cost of labor they must hire the cheaper labor in order to stay in business. Tarrifs can aleviate some of the problem but taxpayers will have to subisdize western industries and prices will go up.
Further, we can see that whites are being corralled into smaller and smaller enclaves. That's why the same home in Upper Caucasia, NW quadrant, Washington, DC is twice as expensive as one in vibrant SE quadrant. This in raving multicultural DC.
Lol theocrats. America doesn’t have “theocrats”, you’re sounding like my Toronto cousin who thinks he’s “alt-right” but really is center left. Identity politics going away? What are you smoking?
he is a liberal who wants to be cool, so he switched sides. but the funny thing is, he never actually became right-wing. He remained a liberal.
Desantis is totally an aspie. He didn’t realize that you go after illegals directly to keep their wages low through the threat of deportation while always failing to actually curb illegal work because they can just disappear and return later. Instead he implemented the strategy that actually works but isn’t what anyone really wants: going after the employers. I respect him for it but I would, wouldn’t I?
Also fuck your e/acc I don’t wanna die because verbals don’t have the shape rotator capacity to imagine something smarter than them that they can’t manipulate with rhetoric.
How would you recommend overcoming the intransigent white anti-white coalition. Be like the Jews politically would work if whites conceived of themselves in ethnic terms like Jews do but most normie whites don’t and many whites are actively hostile to this characterisation. What can we do to change these foundational factors - maybe radicalise the youth but this is more long-term than 2028 would allow for.
He’s not the person to ask, he doesn’t really care much about race
This might be off topic but thank God we purged the Republican party of neo conservatives there's nothing conservative about them at all just go in the Lincoln project website and have a good laugh there literally supporting transgenderism and being pro-choice
I have one disagreement with you for the Democratic party he actually be worth voting for they would have to implement this Men aren't women.
2. here. Illegal immigrants shouldn't be
3. Not everyone is obsessed with abortion.
4. Being gay isn't normal, even if it's not necessarily wrong-kids shouldn't be exposed to drag queen shows and gay porn in school libraries. 5 homeless people should not be on the street attacking people and shooting up in public 6 not everyone is obsessed with identity politics much as unemployed liberal white women 7 get back to basics working class stuff 8 stop forever wars that never end 9 ditch the far left radical socialists and and race hustlers in grifters 10 stop giving hormones to underage children 11 and don't let biological men compete against women 12 embrace designer babies and genetic engineering 13 stop anti-white bigotry 14 limit high scale and low scale immigration to 100,000 a year something manageable
You know sea steading would be a good idea making societies on the sea or making societies and Mars in the next 30 or 100 years when space shuttle and making societies on the sea becomes more affordable and more viable I think that's a good position to move forward
Well I disagree it feels good to know we won't have to deal with Queen Coconut for another 4 years
Trump got the GOP to move to the left on entitlements. There is no repeal ACA, no reform of SS/Medicare. Romney and those types burned up massive political capital on that retarded shit that was never going to happen. Whatever the policy merits, it’s no surprise that “I’m going to take away $1,500 a month in ACA subsidies” didn’t actually go over well with Hispanic hvac repairmen.
Yeah it will all come crashing down in a few more election cycles but you can’t do long term policy planning when the median voter is Hispanic. Gotta work with what you got.
"That’s been an effective strategy for blackpepo only because they’re geographically concentrated in swing states and are *just* big enough to have an impact but not too big for political consolidation to make sense."
I'm not sure that is true. South Carolina has a high percentage of black people and is hardly a swing state, because pretty much every white person in SC votes Team R these days. Rather, swing states are swing states because they have a large enough minority population that turnout or the lack of turnout is enough to move the state from the Team R to the Team D column.
SC is a prominent counterexample. VA and NC have been swing forever and the Rust Belt is super dependent on black turnout.
SC isn't the only example. Mississippi and Louisiana also have plenty of black people., to give two examples,m but both are solidly Team D. Not to mention DC, or MD for Team D, and they are hardly "swing" constituencies.
As noted, *turnout* is key more than black population. Wisconsin, to give the first example to jump to mind, is around 6.5% black, and still considered a "swing state".
"Trump is simply an innocuous normie grandma candidate now. He isn’t cool anymore, and supporting him doesn’t feel half as devilish / transgressive as it did eight years ago."
Supporting someome because they are "transgressive" is just another way of letting other people run your life. For this reason, I try to avoid ideology altogether, as it short-circuits critical thinking.
"But the biggest problem I have with the Right is honestly just its retard peasant culture: the Luddism; the obscurantism; the grotesque impulse against wealth creation and sophisticated art and oblique rhetorical tactics and novel ideas; the blockheaded chud mindset that calls everyone who doesn’t talk in a monotone a faggot theater kid; the asinine worship of Russia; the repulsive lack of agency and any drive to better oneself; and above all the tendency to back straightforwardly retarded insurrection schemes that have zero chance of successfully seizing power.
Am I an elitist? Certainly. But I’m also not a snob, and feel like anyone can rise into the elite provided they have the right IQ and sufficient agency.
Moreover my standards aren’t even particularly high—I don’t really give a shit about your manners or your taste. I simply want our guys to take ownership over their life outcomes and stop doing obviously stupid shit."
Which one is it? Interesting that you gripe with the right seems to be primarily a matter of social class and consumption patterns.
you aren't right wing at all
I really don’t see ‘asinine love of Russia’ in the GOP but lots of goofy Russophobia along with rehashed Cold War fantasies about ‘Putin invading Europe’ in order to justify continually funding the deep state and ever higher defense budgets.
Secondly, things aren’t getting better economically on the whole except for a very small class of urban professionals and IT people. The fastest growing segment of the economy is the low-wage, dead-end service sector. In addition, domestic infrastructure is drastically deteriorating not improving. I’m not sure Trump will do much to improve the situation. Trump is more talk than action. While he is on a far stronger position then in 2016 his tendency is to make deals than stick to principle.
Great piece
Personal feelings about Vivek notwithstanding, I wholeheartedly agree with bringing more Indians into leadership / under the tent. Between Vivek, Kamala, Ushar, Nikki, they are clearly raising their collective profile in any event. While their aggregate numbers may be small, they punch above their weight in terms of impact given generally higher incomes and vast over-representation in leadership roles in Silicon Valley. Like their East Asian cousins, with high IQ and enviable impulse control (at least in the US!), they should align with republican ideals - once they acknowledge that voting based solely on density of pigmentation is not in their best long-term interest. (They are already coded as white adjacent and this will only get worse. Ironic that a culture primarily known for the longest running system of truly institutionalized racism, the castes, have been aggressive supporters of Wokeism in this country). And they are equally pragmatic and ruthless enough to pull the ladder up behind them.